Budget 2026 Summary
Last week we were joined by Cameron Bargrie, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Bagrie Economics to provide a no nonsense insight into the New Zealand economy following the Budget given by the Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
Cameron is no stranger to the NZ Budget, telling us that this is his 29th Treasury lock up. Prior to his current role Cameron was ANZ’s Chief Economist for 11 years, making him a veteran in the New Zealand economy.
The following summary is Cameron’s insights, they are generalised in nature and should not be taken as personalised advice. If you would like to inquire about his services, feel free to reach out to him here.
Strategic Insights
Cameron outlined the strategic themes he would cover: the need for business accountability, the limitations of government led economic recovery, and the importance of the private sector in driving growth. He warned against an over reliance on government intervention, stressing that the government's role is to set the basics, while the private sector should take risks with its own capital.
There was a discussion of global instability, particularly the Middle East conflict, and its impact on oil and food prices, predicting ongoing supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. This highlights a shift from a rules based to a power based global order, with increased focus on resilience, security, and defense spending, both in New Zealand and Australia.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Policy
Persistent global inflation, especially in the US, is causing central banks to keep or raise interest rates. New Zealand, Australia, and others are experiencing “sticky” inflation, with expectations that rates will remain higher than in the past.
Cameron explained the transition from the “Great Moderation” era (low inflation, low rates) to a period of higher inflation (around 3%) and normalised interest rates (around 5% for 10-year bonds). He does not expect rates to return to previous lows.
The Reserve Bank’s recent decision not to raise the official cash rate was close, with some members favoring a hike due to second-round inflation effects already appearing.
Budget Analysis and Government Strategy
The government’s budget aims to return to surplus and boost infrastructure, but relies on reducing core government services in future years, a strategy Cameron calls “Promise Me Nomics,” as much of the restraint is backloaded and will be a challenge for future governments.
Revenue improvements are largely due to inflation boosting nominal GDP and tax take, not real economic growth. Expense growth is projected to be contained, but inflationary pressures on government spending (especially wages and benefits) are not fully accounted for.
Government debt as a share of GDP continues to rise, with fiscal improvements delayed until after 2027.
Sector and Employment Outlook
The economic recovery is expected to be regionally led, with rural and manufacturing sectors showing more resilience than urban centers like Auckland, which are more dependent on construction.
Job growth forecasts are optimistic, but Cameron is skeptical about achieving 3% annual growth, citing low productivity as a major constraint.
Migration is seen as a short-term boost but not a long-term solution unless it brings high-value skills.
Key Challenges and Recommendations
Cameron identified low productivity (0.3% annual growth) as New Zealand’s core economic problem, recommending long-term investment in education, targeted infrastructure, better risk management, political stability, and stronger competition policy.







