Budget 2026 Summary

Troy Turner, Managing Partner • June 1, 2026

Last week we were joined by Cameron Bargrie, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Bagrie Economics to provide a no nonsense insight into the New Zealand economy following the Budget given by the Finance Minister Nicola Willis.


Cameron is no stranger to the NZ Budget, telling us that this is his 29th Treasury lock up. Prior to his current role Cameron was ANZ’s Chief Economist for 11 years, making him a veteran in the New Zealand economy.


The following summary is Cameron’s insights, they are generalised in nature and should not be taken as personalised advice. If you would like to inquire about his services, feel free to reach out to him here.

Strategic Insights

Cameron outlined the strategic themes he would cover: the need for business accountability, the limitations of government led economic recovery, and the importance of the private sector in driving growth. He warned against an over reliance on government intervention, stressing that the government's role is to set the basics, while the private sector should take risks with its own capital.



There was a discussion of global instability, particularly the Middle East conflict, and its impact on oil and food prices, predicting ongoing supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. This highlights a shift from a rules based to a power based global order, with increased focus on resilience, security, and defense spending, both in New Zealand and Australia.


Inflation, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Policy

Persistent global inflation, especially in the US, is causing central banks to keep or raise interest rates. New Zealand, Australia, and others are experiencing “sticky” inflation, with expectations that rates will remain higher than in the past.


Cameron explained the transition from the “Great Moderation” era (low inflation, low rates) to a period of higher inflation (around 3%) and normalised interest rates (around 5% for 10-year bonds). He does not expect rates to return to previous lows.


The Reserve Bank’s recent decision not to raise the official cash rate was close, with some members favoring a hike due to second-round inflation effects already appearing.

Budget Analysis and Government Strategy

The government’s budget aims to return to surplus and boost infrastructure, but relies on reducing core government services in future years, a strategy Cameron calls “Promise Me Nomics,” as much of the restraint is backloaded and will be a challenge for future governments.


Revenue improvements are largely due to inflation boosting nominal GDP and tax take, not real economic growth. Expense growth is projected to be contained, but inflationary pressures on government spending (especially wages and benefits) are not fully accounted for.


Government debt as a share of GDP continues to rise, with fiscal improvements delayed until after 2027.

Sector and Employment Outlook

The economic recovery is expected to be regionally led, with rural and manufacturing sectors showing more resilience than urban centers like Auckland, which are more dependent on construction.


Job growth forecasts are optimistic, but Cameron is skeptical about achieving 3% annual growth, citing low productivity as a major constraint.



Migration is seen as a short-term boost but not a long-term solution unless it brings high-value skills.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

Cameron identified low productivity (0.3% annual growth) as New Zealand’s core economic problem, recommending long-term investment in education, targeted infrastructure, better risk management, political stability, and stronger competition policy. 

Map of New Zealand with North and South Islands labeled, highlighting major cities like Auckland and Wellington.
By Troy Turner March 5, 2026
We were privileged to partner with Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist , to host a webinar on New Zealand’s economic outlook. You can watch the full webinar below:
By Troy Turner June 5, 2024
Post Budget Webinar with IN SIDE and Cameron Bagrie
By Troy Turner & Dale Gray May 1, 2024
We wanted to take a moment to share some incredibly exciting news with you...INSIDE has officially welcomed Weirdly into our team! This decision wasn't just about expanding our business; it was about staying true to our commitment to provide you with exceptional recruitment experiences. Also, challenging economies are when you see industry-shifting ideas come to life. Our dedication to your success remains at the forefront of everything we do, and the acquisition of Weirdly's recruitment software business https://www.getweirdly.com/ is a testament to that.
By Shelley Wood November 7, 2023
In today's professional world, effective communication and engagement is a must for success. This need became very apparent during the challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. As organisations faced unfamiliar situations, communications professionals played a vital role. They skillfully used well-planned strategies to navigate through the uncertainties, providing us with valuable information and direction. Recognising the crucial role of communications experts during uncertain times, it's only natural to think about how to ensure your organisation has the right people to lead it toward successful outcomes. Finding and securing top talent in the field of communications and engagement goes beyond experience and availability. It's about aligning the right professionals with the right opportunities, all driven by a shared purpose. At IN SIDE, we excel in this process, guided by our core values, in-depth industry insights, and an extensive network, ensuring a premium recruitment experience.
By Troy Turner November 1, 2023
New Zealand, with its breathtaking landscapes and vibrant culture, has always been a magnet for dreamers, whether they're locals or intrepid souls from abroad. But, when it comes to job hunting, this land of the Long White Cloud unveils a unique terrain that's both inviting and challenging for anyone seeking their place in the workforce. Let's dive into the heart of the matter. / Market Size and Structure: Picture this: New Zealand, a cozy small-market economy that boasts a plethora of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These are the unsung heroes, shaping industries from agriculture and tourism to cutting-edge technology and the arts. They're the backbone of our job market, offering a diverse smorgasbord of opportunities. But, here's the kicker – the big players are scarce. Large corporations and multinationals aren't as common as in some other countries. So, if you're dreaming of conquering the corporate world on a grand scale, well, it can be like looking for a needle in a haystack here. And keep in mind there is a lot of people waiting and wanting this opportunity also. / Skilled Workforce: Our secret weapon? An exceptionally educated and skilled workforce. Kiwis take their work and education seriously, and our talents are sought after worldwide. But, when global markets flourish, New Zealand sometimes feels the pinch as our brightest minds venture abroad. So, while you may hear about the influx of talent, you might wonder what our net gain truly is in the grand scheme of things. / Regional Variation: Now, here's where the Kiwi job market adds a dash of spice. It's not a one-size-fits-all situation. Take Auckland and Wellington, bustling cities that offer a buffet of opportunities across various sectors. But venture further, and you'll discover specialised industries like agriculture in the South Island. Oh, and here's a fact few people know: a whopping 33% of all employed folks are in Auckland alone, while Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury, and Waikato combined house 66% of the working population. / Skills Shortages: Just like any other country, we grapple with skills shortages. Healthcare, construction, IT – these are the areas where we could use some extra hands. It's no surprise that employers often look overseas for skilled professionals to bridge these gaps. But let's be honest, as other countries shine brighter on the global stage, luring top talents becomes a bit of a tussle. This may free up a little with the economic conditions changing but not as much as some might think. / Current Landscape: In the current New Zealand recruitment landscape, a notable decline in shorter-term contract positions is evident across the country, with this trend not being offset by an increase in permanent roles. Various sectors are experiencing their unique challenges; the Public Sector is transitioning to a reduced operating model, small to medium businesses are striving to boost sales to counter rising costs, and regional New Zealand is grappling with decreasing dairy payouts. Moreover, the nation as a whole is contending with high inflation and elevated interest rates, which may sound somewhat dire. However, the situation is not entirely bleak, and here's why: New Zealand boasts an impressively low unemployment rate, and globally, there is a shortage of both skilled and unskilled workers. While we anticipate this economic cycle to persist for a while, it's essential to remember that it's a problem for the present, and opportunities will eventually emerge, so stay vigilant. / In Conclusion, what does this mean: For employers, this period may entail lower employee turnover rates and greater difficulty in enticing employees away from competitors. You may also catch wind of potential organisational changes within your industry. If you're an employee, expect to encounter fewer job opportunities and limited mobility. Phrases like "we need to deliver more with less" might become more common. Nevertheless, it's crucial to recognise that this is a temporary challenge. My advice is to remain attentive and align your efforts with your organisation's purpose. Prioritise self-care to operate at your best both at home and work. Now is not the time to overexert yourself; instead, work smart. While the demand for contractors is indeed decreasing, it's unlikely to vanish entirely. Many individuals continue to appreciate the flexibility that contracting offers and may be reluctant to shift to permanent positions. Furthermore, organisations, uncertain about the future, are turning to project-based resourcing models as a way to mitigate long-term risks.
By Fraser Leith & Shelley Wood September 15, 2023
In the ever-evolving world of public sector recruitment, staying informed about labour market shifts is essential, whether you're a contractor or candidate, or responsible for hiring decisions within the government sector. Welcome to the first part of our three-part blog series, where we explore the current public sector environment. Throughout this series, we'll gather insights from our practice leaders at IN SIDE, across government, professional services, business transformation, digital, executive, and permanent recruitment. Our goal is to provide valuable perspectives that enhance your understanding of the current employment landscape.  In this initial segment, we share an IN SIDE view of the current market from a high-level perspective. Our aim is to equip you with information to ensure you’re across the suite of changes we’re also experiencing and navigate this changing landscape together.
By Shelley Wood June 7, 2023
In today's interconnected world, networking has become more crucial than ever. It's often said that we live in a small world, where everyone is just two degrees of separation away from each other. As a professional recruiter, I have witnessed first-hand the immense benefits that come from cultivating strong networks/connections. Successful contractors excel in networking by forging extensive connections and nurturing sincere relationships. In my experience, these reputable contractors consistently enjoy a steady flow of opportunities year on year. Through conversations with numerous contractors, I've discovered various approaches to maintaining networking efforts and fostering relationships. These efforts ensure that you remain top of mind among your networks/connections, gain valuable market insights, explore new opportunities, and promote your availability. In today's market, networking and relationships have regained their importance. Building a solid network of contacts takes time, from you're starting from scratch to expanding an already established network. Regardless of where you are on this spectrum, your networks and relationships will provide you with valuable market intelligence and other benefits. Here are some tips shared by our long-term and established contractors that can serve as a helpful refresher or introduce new approaches: 1. Foster a partnership with your recruiter: Seek out a recruitment agency or professional who understands your needs, passions, and is genuinely enthusiastic about representing you. Regularly communicate with your recruitment partner, even when you're not actively seeking opportunities. Staying in touch helps maintain a strong relationship. 2. Leverage your existing networks: Adopt a structured approach to identify and maintain meaningful connections with your networks. Clearly communicate your availability and inquire about opportunities to contribute value and expertise to their work programs. Engage regularly with your networks through activities like coffee meetings or simple emails to keep in touch. Remember, timing may not always be perfect, but you never know when the right opportunity will arise. 3. Start with a list: If you're unsure where to begin, create a list of individuals in your networks and client relationships. It doesn't have to be extensive; it can be small and specific. Consider the people you've worked, former alumni or those you admire in your field of interest of expertise. Approach these connections with a mindset of mutual benefit and explore what you both can achieve through these relationships. Remember, good people refer good people! 4. Stay connected online: Utilise the power of LinkedIn for professional networking. Many self-employed contractors, recruitment partners, and networks are active on LinkedIn. Regularly update your LinkedIn profile to accurately reflect your availability, specialist skills, capabilities, and professional achievements. Identify specific topics or areas you want to be known for and engage with relevant content by liking, commenting, or sharing. In summary, networking remains an essential practice in today's business landscape. In Wellington, especially within the public sector, traditional networking approaches like face-to-face meetings and coffee catchups are deeply ingrained. However, there are other ways to network and stay top of mind, whether it's a virtual cuppa, a simple email, or a text. Embrace the opportunities that networking brings and enjoy the process of building meaningful connections.
By Troy Turner September 28, 2022
This week acknowledges Mental Health Awareness Week here in Aotearoa, New Zealand, a chance to check in with both our own mental health and that of those around us. This year's theme is one that resonates closely with us here at IN SIDE, with people and connection being at our core: "Reconnect - with the people and places that lift you up, hei pikinga waiora" . We have connected with Umbrella - a company that specialises in workplace wellbeing and resilience - to share a helpful article that contains some practical things you can try to help strengthen your relationships and reconnect with your loves ones. We have built a close relationship with Umbrella over the past few years, and have found their work to be beneficial in ensuring our team are thriving. We hope you find this information useful this Mental Health Awareness Week, and encourage you this week in particular to focus on reconnecting with the people and places that lift you up.
By Demelza Halley August 30, 2022
I was looking for my next role – scrolling job boards, refreshing my CV and seeking my trusted recruiter’s advice, when I found myself accepting a role to become that trusted voice myself. With 10 years public sector contracting experience, here I was turning my hand to consulting, advising, and placing people just like me in contract roles across the public sector. My journey into contract recruitment has given me a chance to reflect on what I enjoyed most about being a contractor, the value they offer to our public service and how my contractor experiences will enhance me in my recruitment role. I know what it feels like to make the shift from permanent employment - to worry about what you think you are giving up (security? stability? professional development?). I’d read the persistent headlines scrutinising contractors in the public service and I’d seen a fair few come and go from the organisations I had worked in. Engaging and efficient new teammates who popped up in the middle of a crisis or a resource crunch and then slipped out when the job was done. I know deeply the reward of contracting – the pace of the work you find yourself leading, the satisfaction of picking up new content and processes and relationships. The exposure to different topics, disciplines, and people. And the opportunities the remuneration and flexibility afforded me and my family. I’ve joined recruitment during “a war on talent”, a time when employers are talking about a “candidate tight market” and where the terms “quiet quitting” and “the great resignation” are entering the general vernacular. It’s a great time to consider your next move, to revisit what it is that you loved about your past roles, to identify your most valuable skills and look beyond the sectors and topics you’ve found comfort in. If you’ve ever considered becoming a contractor in the Public Service, please, get in touch – I’d love to talk to you. Tell me about what you are thinking, what you really want to know. In return I can tell you about what I experienced, what I’ve heard from others, and talk you through what contract recruitment experience is like from both sides of the call.
By Troy Turner March 30, 2022
With borders closed, businesses across multiple sectors are already struggling to fill roles. While the promise of attractive working opportunities abroad is only expected to worsen the labour shortage when borders reopen. Troy speaks with TVNZ Breakfast around the possible great migration of skilled workers and the impact on businesses. Watch the interview here: